BusinessWorld-SWS December 5-10, 2009

BusinessWorld-SWS December 5-10, 2009 Pre-Election Survey: Aquino (46%), Villar (27%) and Estrada (16%) lead Presidential race; Roxas (43%) and Legarda (32%) lead VP race; Santiago, Revilla, and Jinggoy Estrada lead Senatorial race Social Weather Stations The new national scores in the Presidential race show Senator Noynoy Aquino, Senator Manny Villar, and former President Joseph Estrada ahead, according to the BusinessWorld-SWS Pre-Election Survey of December 5-10, 2009. The survey also found Senator Manuel Roxas and Senator Loren Legarda leading in the Vice-Presidential race. In the Senate race, Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, Senator Ramon Revilla, Jr., and Senator Jinggoy Estrada lead the first circle of twelve that includes three candidates from the Liberal Party, two from Lakas-Kampi-CMD, two from Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, one each from the People's Reform Party, Nacionalista Party, Nationalist People's Coalition, and Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, and one independent. Aquino, Villar, and Estrada lead the Presidential race The question asked for the Presidential preferences was, "Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?" [Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as PRESIDENT of the Philippines, if elections were held today?]. The respondents were furnished with a BusinessWorld-approved list of 11 candidates to choose from, and gave their answers orally. All lists were in alphabetical order, and included nicknames, as practiced by the Commission on Elections on election day. From the list of 11 Presidential candidates, 46% chose Benigno Aquino III, 27% Manuel Villar, Jr., 16% Joseph Estrada, 5% Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., 1% Eduardo Villanueva, and 1% Richard Gordon [Chart 1]. Jamby Madrigal (0.2%), Oliver Lozano (0.1%), Mario Crespo (0.1%), John Carlos delos Reyes (0.1%), and Jesus Nicanor Perlas (0.03%) each obtained fractional numbers. Four percent could not give an answer. Roxas and Legarda lead the Vice-Presidential race For the Vice-Presidential preferences, the question asked was, "Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?" [Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as VICE-PRESIDENT of the Philippines, if elections were held today?]. The respondents were furnished with a BusinessWorld-approved list of 8 candidates to choose from, and gave their answers orally. From the list of 8 Vice-Presidential candidates, 43% chose Manuel Roxas, 32% Loren Legarda, 10% Jejomar Binay, 3% Eduardo Manzano, and 2% Bayani Fernando [Chart 2]. Jose Sonza (0.3%) and Perfecto Yasay (0.1%) each scored fractionally. None of the respondents in the 2009 survey chose Dominador Chipeco, Jr. Santiago, Revilla, and Jinggoy Estrada ahead in Senatorial race For the Senatorial preferences, the question asked was, "Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang mga Senador ng Pilipinas? Narito po ang listahan ng mga pangalan ng mga kandidato. Maaari po kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan." [If elections were to take place today, who will you most probably vote for as SENATORS of the Philippines? Here is a list of names of the candidates. You can mention up to 12 names.] The respondents gave their answers orally. From the BusinessWorld-approved list of 66 names shown to the respondents, Miriam Defensor Santiago (People's Reform Party) was chosen by 55%, Ramon Bong Revilla, Jr. (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) by 54%, and Jinggoy Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) by 53% [Table 1]. The next nine candidates are: 4. Pilar Juliana Cayetano (Nacionalista Party) 48%, 5. Franklin Drilon (Liberal Party) 47%, 6. Ralph Recto (Liberal Party) 44%, 7. Vicente Sotto III (Nationalist People's Coalition) 40%, 8. Juan Ponce Enrile (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) 37%, 9. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) 32%, 10. Sergio Osmeña III (Independent) 31%, 11. Teofisto Guingona III (Liberal Party) 24%, and 12. Manuel Lapid (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) 23%. Within the bounds of statistical error are 13. Jose De Venecia III (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) 21%, 14. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (Liberal Party) 20%, 15. Sonia Roco (Liberal Party) 18%, and 16. Gwendolyn Pimentel (PDP-Laban) 17%. A significant distance away are: 17-18. Jose Apolinario Lozada, Jr. (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) and Francisco Tatad (Grand Alliance for Democracy), both 16%, 19. Alexander Lacson (Liberal Party) 15%, 20. Gilbert Cesar Remulla (Nacionalista Party), 10%, 21-22. Ramon Mitra (Nacionalista Party) and Danilo Lim (Independent), both 9%, and 23. Adel Tamano (Nacionalista Party) 8%. Survey Background The Fourth Quarter of 2009 Social Weather Survey was conducted from December 5-10, 2009 using face-to-face interviews of 2,100 adults, for an error margin of ±2.2%. The national estimate was obtained by using area estimates weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2009. The national status of the three races for President, Vice-President, and Senator are commissioned items by BusinessWorld under the BW-SWS Partnership in 2009-2010 Pre-Election Surveys, and released with exclusive first-print right to BusinessWorld. The exclusion of candidates from the lists used in the survey was the judgment call of BusinessWorld. # Chart 1 Chart 2 Table 1